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Musings from the Bunker 12/10/20




Musings from the Bunker #272 (Thursday December 10)


Good morning,


Happy Hanukkah! Tonight is the first night of the “Festival of Lights.” It’s also a good opportunity to share some of the good stuff I’ve received in the past weeks.


HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE


Mark Greenfield has asked whether the absence of fans in attending sporting events has eliminated the “home field advantage.” While there weren’t fans during the baseball season and early rounds of the playoffs, fans were permitted in limited numbers for the World Series. Several of the Dodger players shared that, even though the World Series was played in Arlington, they were bolstered by the cheering of the predominantly Los Angeles fans.


It is the received wisdom that referees and umpires tend to be swayed by the boisterousness of the hometown fans. That bias, coupled with the positive impact on the local team, results in oddsmakers tilting slightly toward the home team. Las Vegas oddsmakers (who get paid to know), feel that the home field advantage in football translates to three points. This advantage appears to have reduced this year to only a 1 1/2% benefit to the home team. Here is an excellent Wall Street Journal article on the subject: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-does-home-field-advantage-mean-in-a-stadium-without-fans-11605799111?st=5o4h5qr3jgpxbjv&reflink=share_mobilewebshare


THE TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL LIBRARY


It’s hard to imagine, but it’s true…there will be a Trump Presidential Library. Our government participates in the funding for the construction and operation of a presidential library for all former presidents, beginning with Herbert Hoover and continuing through George W. Bush (but maybe not Obama…more about this and the other libraries in a future Musing). Some lucky community will have the distinction of being the home for the papers of this unique president, assuming he doesn’t destroy most of the evidence before leaving the White House.


The locations of presidential libraries vary. Some of the earlier ones are affiliated with the childhood or long-time homes of the presidents (Eisenhower in Kansas, Hoover in Iowa, Truman in Missouri, Carter in Atlanta, Reagan in California) and others are associated with universities (like JFK at UMass, LBJ at UT, George H.W. Bush at Texas A&M, or George W. Bush at SMU). Perhaps Mr. Trump’s can be at Trump University—or maybe one of the “for profit” universities that Betsy DeVos is so enamored with—like DeVry.


The best response to the idea of a Trump Presidential Library is here: https://djtrumplibrary.com. Thank you, Mark Farrell, for reminding me of this singularly brilliant, exquisitely designed and perfectly executed, website of an imaginary Donald J. Trump Presidential Library. It’s worth a viewing—it is a rich website with drop down menus and great architectural renderings. The New York Times has done a story on this endeavor, which is quite remarkable. I’m still chuckling…


STOP THE STEAL—THE REAL REASON


From Mark Schwartz, highlights what he believes is the real justification for fighting the election results:


I am surprised that no one has written about the real reason Trump is contesting the election results in the States he really lost. Follow the money. He has raised $200 MM to fund his STOP THE STEAL campaign. How ironic that 75% of the money goes to his discretionary campaign account and 25% for the intended legal cost to challenge the voter count. Perhaps he is going to use that money to repay the bank debt he owes Deutsche Bank. Of course, that would be a misappropriation of campaign funds. Talk about STOP THE STEAL. He is refusing to concede because he needs the money and has done a masterful job of relieving his biggest obstacle post POTUS.


Another friend did some math. Mr. Trump’s upcoming debt maturities equate to some $400MM. It appears that the 75% of the money raised to fight the election can be used by Mr. Trump for other purposes will be around $200MM. That puts him half way toward his goal, which could be filled in by Russian or other parties interested in supporting Mr. Trump, since it is difficult any U.S. bank coming anywhere near his business dealings.


DENSER THAN WE THOUGHT?


Thank you, Paul Kanin, for sending me the video of some Trump supporters who supported recounts (in states Biden won) and urging that the vote be stopped in other states (those that Trump won). When asked about their bias, they inexplicably pointed to the “liberal media.” But nothing quite says it all as their last comment, “President Trump is a genius. That’s what the ‘J’ stands for.”


ONE LAST THOUGHT ON THANKS


“This is not the year to get everything you want. This is the year to appreciate everything you have.”


Thanks, Many Lowell, for this.


Have a great day,


Glenn

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